The problem with tanking for Victor Wembanyama

By Chip Downes-Le Guin ‘25

“The blocks, his athleticism, everything; what makes him so special is that he can be the Defensive Player of the Year, and Most Valuable Player in the same year. In the NBA currently, there’s no one quite like him.” Hearing these comments, you might think NBA fan Charlie Broad, ‘25, is talking about proven stars like Lebron James or Giannis Antetokounmpo; however, the reality is far from it. 

Broad is referring to Victor Wembanyama, a 7’4”, 18-year-old, French basketball prospect with an 8’0” wingspan who hasn't yet played one minute of NBA basketball. Earlier this month, Wembanyama scored 73 points, nine blocks, and nine three-pointers in just two games against one of the best non-NBA teams in the world.

His unparalleled body type, skills, and statistics all are hyping Wembanyama up to be one of the best draft prospects of all time. Former NBA champion and NBA veteran Richard Jefferson had a more unpopular take: “Lebron James would be a No 2. draft pick if he was the exact same age, coming into the exact same draft as Victor”.

With all of this anticipation, it’s no surprise that many NBA teams are gunning for the first overall pick in 2023. The way that most teams are going about this is through a process called tanking. 

Tanking is a tactic in which teams purposely trade away their best players in order to lose more games, and subsequently receive a higher pick in the draft. The potential for securing such an incredible draft prospect as Wembanyama has driven two previously playoff-competitive teams, the Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs, to trade away their best players for multiple first-round picks and begin tanking this season. 

Although it is easy for teams to begin tanking, the implications for the fans and the NBA are far more massive. Being a fan of a team that you know is purposely losing is difficult. Broad agreed; “You want an entertaining 82-game schedule for each team.” Fans don’t want to be watching teams “rest” and trade away their best players for a chance (no higher than 14%) of getting the No. 1 pick.

In a previous tank job from the Philadelphia 76ers which lasted from 2013-2016, the NBA and the 76ers’ organization lost huge amounts of money on ticket sales, merchandise, and other commercial aspects of the game. This season, in response to an interview question regarding Wembanyama, NBA league commissioner Adam Silver said, “I know that many of our NBA teams are salivating at the notion that potentially through our [draft] lottery that they could get him, so they all still compete very hard next season”.

Silver’s vain comments aren’t the only way the NBA has tried to prevent tanking. In 2017, the NBA changed the way the draft lottery worked so that all three of the worst teams in the league had the same chance at winning the No. 1 pick, and changed the odds so that it was easier for teams with better records to jump up in the lottery. 

In 2020, the NBA Board signed off on adding the “play-in tournament”, which allowed four more teams to have a chance to make it into the playoffs, and just a few months ago, the Board agreed to add a mid-season tournament in the 2023 season for teams to compete in to win potential prizes, like draft picks.

Despite a multitude of fast changes to how the NBA functions and the commercial negatives resulting from tanking, as long as there is a draft lottery that incentivizes losing, teams will want to tank, and unfortunately for the league, teams who tank end up very good eventually.

For the 76ers, ‘process’, where they went through one of the more grueling rebuilds the NBA has ever seen, they still eventually ended up drafting multiple All-Stars and an annual MVP contender. Now, they have been a good playoff team for the past five years, and are projected among the top three seeds in the Eastern Conference this year. The end-all goal of all NBA teams is to hang as many championship banners from their ceilings as they can, and Wembanyama seems like he will be many teams’ best way of hanging one.

This year, the race to the bottom for Wembanyama looks to be historic, and fans can only watch with tears in their eyes as their favorite teams win seven out of 82 games on purpose.